Dynamic Model

Our population forecast model operates at the ZIP Code level and begins with a robust cohort-component baseline. This baseline is then calibrated using the most recent regional trends to better reflect real-world dynamics and provide more precise, localized projections.

Data Sources Integrated into the Model:

• Housing Market Trends: Including new listings, housing permits, and housing turnover.

• Housing Values: Changes in median home prices and rental costs as proxies for economic pressure and demand.

• Employability Metrics: Local job availability, unemployment rates, and job growth indicators.

• Estimated Audiences (Meta): Aggregated behavioral and location-based data to assess population movement and digital footprint.

Generation Dynamic Signals by ZIP Code

This component tracks shifts in the distribution of generational cohorts across ZIP Codes. Using age breakdowns from census-based sources and historical cohort patterns, we monitor how these groups evolve spatially over time.

This signal captures short-term shifts in the age composition of local populations, particularly in response to economic conditions. By analyzing monthly or annual changes in population estimates by age group, we can detect emerging patterns—such as younger working-age cohorts moving into high-opportunity areas or leaving ZIP Codes experiencing economic pressure.

Rather than focusing on long-term life-cycle trends like retirement or family formation, our approach emphasizes more immediate drivers such as housing affordability, job availability, and income trends. For example, a sudden rise in unemployment or decline in housing inventory may correspond with out-migration among younger renters or working-age individuals.

These signals help us adjust projections at the ZIP Code level by flagging areas where short-term in- or out-migration is likely occurring among specific age groups. When combined with other indicators such as employment data and housing trends, this allows us to produce more responsive, localized forecasts that reflect real-time economic dynamics.

Development-Driven Population Boost

In addition to demographic and economic signals, our model incorporates a secondary adjustment layer that accounts for planned or ongoing developments within each region. These include large-scale projects such as data centers, energy infrastructure, logistics facilities and others.

When such developments are identified near a ZIP Code or county, we apply a population “boost” based on the expected impact these projects may have on job creation, in-migration, and housing demand. These forward-looking signals help us anticipate population changes that are not yet visible in historical data but are likely to materialize in the near future due to increased economic activity.

This enhancement allows the model to be more proactive rather than purely reactive—capturing areas of future growth earlier, and improving the precision of our projections where economic momentum is already forming on the ground.