# Project Likelihood

Thousands of industrial projects are announced each year in the United States, but only a fraction advance beyond early planning. This requires a clear framework for assessing which announced projects are most likely to move forward. To support this, we use an expected project likelihood methodology to evaluate the probability of each project advancing from announcement to construction and completion.

Since not every announced project proceeds as planned, each development is assigned a **likelihood rating** based on its progress, visibility, and maturity. Projects are categorized into three levels:

**“High” likelihood** – Projects are highly likely to proceed due to secured land control, advanced or approved permitting and zoning, confirmed utility access (power, water, transport), committed financing or incentives, and experienced developers.

**“Medium” likelihood** – Projects have a moderate chance of advancing due to pending land acquisition, early-stage permitting, uncertain financing or infrastructure, or limited development history. These projects are typically active but not yet confirmed for construction.

**“Low” likelihood** – Projects face significant uncertainty due to unresolved land or permitting issues, lack of clear funding or utility access, stalled timelines, or minimal public or corporate updates since announcement.

Using standardized likelihood ratings allows for consistent tracking of project momentum over time. This approach helps identify which developments are gaining traction and which may stall, creating a data-driven view of real industrial progress across states and sectors.

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